Below-Normal 2026 Hurricane Season Forecast
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 55% chance of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, calling for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes. Forecasters warn that lower seasonal activity does not eliminate risk for the British Virgin Islands and urge residents to prepare now for the peak months of August through October.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and, as of early opening-day reports from the National Hurricane Center, there were no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is giving a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
NOAA’s outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger). Those numbers sit below the 1991–2020 seasonal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Most activity, NOAA says, is still likely between August and October — the season’s peak months.
Forecasters point to the likely development of El Niño as the main reason for the more restrained outlook. El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds and vertical wind shear across parts of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, conditions that suppress storm formation and intensification.
Colorado State University’s tropical cyclone team has issued a similar, somewhat below-normal projection — about 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes — but it also highlights a continuing, meaningful threat to the Caribbean. CSU estimates a roughly 35 percent chance that the Caribbean will experience a major hurricane landfall this season.
That probability is lower than the long-term average, but the risk remains significant for island territories like the British Virgin Islands where exposure is high and preparation windows can be short. Researchers also note a mixed pattern of sea surface temperatures — warmer than normal in parts of the western tropical Atlantic and cooler in the eastern and central basin — which helps explain why forecasters expect moderate activity rather than an active season.
Officials emphasize that seasonal outlooks do not predict where storms will form, their exact tracks, or the strength of any individual system. For BVI residents, the difference between a storm passing over an island and one passing nearby can still mean the difference between minor impacts and major damage.
Tropical storms and distant hurricanes can produce damaging winds, heavy flooding rain, dangerous surf, storm surge and extended utility outages. Local preparedness steps remain essential: review household emergency plans, secure property and boats, check insurance and important documents, and assemble emergency supplies for at least three days — including water, nonperishable food, medicine, flashlights, batteries, phone chargers, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, cash and fuel.
Stay informed through the National Hurricane Center, the National Weather Service and local emergency management for watches, warnings and guidance throughout the season.
Primary source: VINO