USVI Population Projected To Fall 41 Percent
A new report from the U.S. Census Bureau projects that the United States Virgin Islands will see its population shrink by roughly 41 percent by 2100. The long-term decline is being driven by falling fertility rates and sustained outmigration.
The neighbouring United States Virgin Islands is projected to experience a major demographic contraction, with its population expected to decline by approximately 41 percent by the year 2100, according to updated estimates from the U.S. The projection represents a loss of roughly 34,565 residents over the period, driven by a combination of low birth rates and steady outward migration.
According to the database, the USVI population is forecast to decrease to 82,139 by 2030, 76,430 by 2040, and 70,187 by 2050, with an annual growth rate of minus 0.46 percent for 2026. Demographers also project that deaths in the territory could begin exceeding births as early as 2027, creating a demographic condition known as natural decrease.
The total fertility rate in the USVI dropped from 2.5 children per woman in 2007 to 1.9 in 2026, falling below the standard 2.1 replacement rate needed to maintain population levels without immigration. Migration patterns have heavily influenced the territory's trajectory. Between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, the USVI recorded an 18.1 percent drop in population, falling from 106,405 to 87,146 residents.
Researchers attributed this sharp outmigration to the closure of the St. Croix oil refinery, the widespread devastation of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, and ongoing economic challenges. Croix lost 19 percent of its population, St. Alongside shrinking numbers, the USVI is undergoing significant population aging.
In data released following the 2020 census, residents aged 65 and older accounted for 21.3 percent of the population, compared to 19.6 percent under age 18. The median age is projected to reach 48.5 years in 2026. For residents in the British Virgin Islands, who share deep historical, familial, and economic ties with the neighbouring territory, these demographic trends highlight shared regional vulnerabilities surrounding aging populations, post-disaster recovery, and economic migration.
The census update is the first revision since 2017 for U.S. island territories. Similar long-term declines are projected across other territories, with American Samoa expected to lose 61 percent of its population by 2100, Guam 38 percent, and the Northern Mariana Islands 17 percent.
Primary source: VINO